1 00:00:00,420 --> 00:00:05,910 [Music] 2 00:00:11,599 --> 00:00:17,359 Thank you. Sound effect. Uh, speaking 3 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:22,240 of, did everyone notice that there was a 4 00:00:17,359 --> 00:00:24,800 uh tram? Uh, yes, the tram dog. I'm 5 00:00:22,240 --> 00:00:27,840 talking about the um tram races that 6 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:30,320 happened last night on the interweb. 7 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:32,880 There's information about it on on the 8 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:34,559 Discord. It's terrifying. Um, anyway, 9 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,800 I'm going to uh leave you all in the 10 00:00:34,559 --> 00:00:40,239 capable hands of Beno, another well 11 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:42,399 credentialized goth and uh 12 00:00:40,239 --> 00:00:44,160 ranter from way back who's here to give 13 00:00:42,399 --> 00:00:47,120 us a rant of some sort, possibly 14 00:00:44,160 --> 00:00:47,840 several. Um, make yourselves 15 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:51,559 comfortable. 16 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:51,559 How many do you want? 17 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:57,760 So, uh, one of the bits of feedback I 18 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:59,920 got for my, uh, proposal, uh, when we 19 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:01,359 were doing review was that, um, some 20 00:00:59,920 --> 00:01:02,879 people didn't get what I was getting at 21 00:01:01,359 --> 00:01:05,199 with the title, so I've provided a bit 22 00:01:02,879 --> 00:01:08,159 of a definition up here. Um, it's it's 23 00:01:05,199 --> 00:01:12,640 it's gamer speak, so you know, it's it's 24 00:01:08,159 --> 00:01:15,360 onliney kind of stuff. Um, anyway, so 25 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:16,960 once upon a time, there was this guy who 26 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:18,880 stood up at a conference. It was in New 27 00:01:16,960 --> 00:01:20,640 Zealand, I believe, and and said words 28 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,320 to the effect of, you know, nerds 29 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,840 especially have a really complicated 30 00:01:22,320 --> 00:01:25,680 relationship with change. You know, we 31 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:29,360 love it to pieces. You know, change is 32 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:30,880 awesome when we're the ones doing it. 33 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:32,240 And as soon as change is something 34 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:34,079 that's coming from outside of us, 35 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:37,200 becomes untrustworthy and threatens what 36 00:01:34,079 --> 00:01:39,680 we think of as the familiar. Um, so 37 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:42,159 yeah, that was me. 38 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:45,360 Um, then that was in a talk that got a 39 00:01:42,159 --> 00:01:49,200 little bit of attention. Um, and it was 40 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:50,799 a little while ago. Um, but some people 41 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:53,280 got the point of that talk and others 42 00:01:50,799 --> 00:01:56,640 didn't. And so just to save you having 43 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:58,399 to watch the whole thing, um, it was 44 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:00,000 about rejecting the new thing just 45 00:01:58,399 --> 00:02:02,320 because it's not the old thing and why 46 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:04,399 that's bad. Wasn't actually about 47 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:07,600 systemd per se, but it was, but it 48 00:02:04,399 --> 00:02:09,599 wasn't. Um, and I I bring this up 49 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:11,360 because I'm about to talk about one of 50 00:02:09,599 --> 00:02:12,959 the, you know, bigger changes that's 51 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:15,200 happening in our industry, or at least 52 00:02:12,959 --> 00:02:17,360 my industry, um, that I can remember. 53 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:21,040 And, you know, spoiler alert, I'm not a 54 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:23,200 fan. Um, that said, uh, there are some 55 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:25,120 similarities in the origin of this talk 56 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:26,879 and the systemd talk in that both of 57 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,560 them came about from me asking, well, 58 00:02:26,879 --> 00:02:31,440 the first one came about came about from 59 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:34,800 me asking why everyone seemed to hate 60 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:38,000 systemd. And this talk came about from 61 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:40,080 me asking why do I find all this AI 62 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:42,720 stuff so off-putting? 63 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:45,040 Um to put it mildly, there's elements of 64 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:47,760 really sort of just 65 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:50,480 um and I'm just going to do a quick 66 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:55,360 linguistic thing here. I don't like the 67 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:58,239 term AI for this. Um I don't think it's 68 00:02:55,360 --> 00:03:01,599 artificially intelligent. And I mean the 69 00:02:58,239 --> 00:03:02,959 philosophy zone can come for me. um and 70 00:03:01,599 --> 00:03:06,159 the nature of intelligence and all that 71 00:03:02,959 --> 00:03:09,120 kind of stuff. Um whatever. Come find me 72 00:03:06,159 --> 00:03:10,879 outside or or don't. Um but I'm going to 73 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:12,239 be using large language models because I 74 00:03:10,879 --> 00:03:15,040 feel that's more accurate and it's my 75 00:03:12,239 --> 00:03:19,280 talk and I can do what I want. 76 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:20,959 Um so to get to back to my point, um why 77 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:25,040 do I find all this LLM stuff so 78 00:03:20,959 --> 00:03:27,280 off-putting? Um, so 79 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:29,920 one of the more amusing outcomes of the 80 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:31,840 systemd talk was that everyone decided 81 00:03:29,920 --> 00:03:33,120 that I knew what systemd was and exactly 82 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:36,640 how it worked and I was the world's 83 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:38,879 biggest expert. Um, I know of it. I use 84 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:40,480 it. Uh, I I don't I I don't think I've 85 00:03:38,879 --> 00:03:43,599 ever looked at any of the source code. 86 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:46,080 Um, educated user maybe, but I mean so 87 00:03:43,599 --> 00:03:48,159 what what do I do? What what are what is 88 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:50,080 relevant to this? And what I have is, 89 00:03:48,159 --> 00:03:52,640 you know, to paraphrase a 17-year-old 90 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:54,959 movie, um it comes down to I have a very 91 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:57,439 particular set of skills. I've acquired 92 00:03:54,959 --> 00:03:58,640 them over a very long career. Um skill, 93 00:03:57,439 --> 00:04:00,720 they're skills that make me quite 94 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:02,239 valuable to certain people. Um when they 95 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:06,159 have problems, I'll look for solutions. 96 00:04:02,239 --> 00:04:09,519 I'll find them and I'll implement them. 97 00:04:06,159 --> 00:04:11,519 Um so it comes down to skills like I I 98 00:04:09,519 --> 00:04:13,280 have to I have skills to offer. Skills 99 00:04:11,519 --> 00:04:16,639 that in my case are bound based 100 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:18,959 primarily around knowing things. um but 101 00:04:16,639 --> 00:04:22,000 also knowing how to use the things that 102 00:04:18,959 --> 00:04:25,040 I know effectively in situations and 103 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:26,800 adapt them and so on so forth. But why 104 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:30,240 do I find all this LLM stuff so 105 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:32,479 off-putting? Um the first, you know, 106 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:34,800 part of it purely personal. I just find 107 00:04:32,479 --> 00:04:37,120 them irritating. There's a whole bunch 108 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:39,199 of ways in which I don't like what they 109 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,960 do. But I mean, part of it is just 110 00:04:39,199 --> 00:04:44,479 change. 111 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:45,759 I mean, uh, I did a whole talk about why 112 00:04:44,479 --> 00:04:47,120 we shouldn't just reject change just 113 00:04:45,759 --> 00:04:50,800 because it's change. And here I am 114 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:53,919 rejecting change. Um, but it comes down 115 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:55,680 to I think 116 00:04:53,919 --> 00:04:56,800 the distinction here, and this is where 117 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,880 I'm going to get a whole bunch more 118 00:04:56,800 --> 00:05:00,800 comments about systemd stuff is that I 119 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:02,880 feel like unlike the systemd thing, this 120 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:05,120 is forced change. 121 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:06,960 Um, the systemd people will tell me that 122 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,479 systemd was forced upon them and I will 123 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:13,919 look at them and smile and nod and walk 124 00:05:08,479 --> 00:05:17,440 away. But um the reality is that um yeah 125 00:05:13,919 --> 00:05:21,360 I just resent the notion that I am going 126 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:23,680 to be told how I need to do my job. 127 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:25,520 Um 128 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:27,280 and 129 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,160 you know there are some and this is one 130 00:05:27,280 --> 00:05:30,080 of the things where one of the things 131 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,600 I've noticed is there are two kind of 132 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:33,520 you know more than two but there are 133 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,880 broad camps where I have seen a whole 134 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:37,680 bunch of people who are quite willing to 135 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:39,440 use these tools and that's fine. Um, I'm 136 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,880 not going to tell them how they should 137 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:44,240 work because that would make me an even 138 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:46,639 bigger hypocrite. Um, but I feel like 139 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:48,960 there are some people for whom the 140 00:05:46,639 --> 00:05:50,800 having the code is the outcome and they 141 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:53,520 don't mind how they get there. But 142 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:56,000 that's not me. My purely personal beef 143 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:57,759 with this is that I need to have my head 144 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,600 stuck right into the code. I need to 145 00:05:57,759 --> 00:06:01,120 know what it's doing. I need to know 146 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:03,600 where it is. I need to know what it 147 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:06,000 thinks it's doing and why hasn't it come 148 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:09,759 home. Um, 149 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:12,240 and I just, you know, these tools just 150 00:06:09,759 --> 00:06:15,680 get in the way of that for me. It just 151 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:19,280 doesn't work. Um, 152 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:23,360 but sort of digging into this further 153 00:06:19,280 --> 00:06:26,080 is like what is the societal change that 154 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:31,639 this thing represents for me? 155 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:31,639 Um so digging into it further 156 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:42,680 this is a term that's used by a certain 157 00:06:35,840 --> 00:06:42,680 you know political bent but um 158 00:06:43,199 --> 00:06:46,560 skating straight past that for just the 159 00:06:45,039 --> 00:06:48,720 moment. The whole point of learning 160 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:51,759 things is to gain knowledge right we 161 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:53,680 need to learn how to do things. 162 00:06:51,759 --> 00:06:55,440 Um we need to learn the structures of a 163 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:57,039 language. We need to learn the API 164 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:58,639 service of a library. We need to know 165 00:06:57,039 --> 00:07:00,400 what the semantics of a given method 166 00:06:58,639 --> 00:07:03,039 are. You know, these are all concrete 167 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:04,560 bits of knowledge. And this is where, 168 00:07:03,039 --> 00:07:06,160 you know, those of us with, you know, 169 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,440 beards my color or at least, you know, 170 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:09,039 the age that would get you a beard of 171 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:10,880 this color can remember a time before 172 00:07:09,039 --> 00:07:13,199 things like Stack Overflow or even 173 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:16,080 GitHub existed. That there that time did 174 00:07:13,199 --> 00:07:18,000 exist. Um, and the challenges of finding 175 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:19,440 out anything about, you know, how 176 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,720 something worked and, you know, you had 177 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,400 to go to a lot much greater length than 178 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:25,120 that. And this is something where LLMs 179 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:27,599 can help. um they act as a form of 180 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:29,280 search engine in this regard. Um using 181 00:07:27,599 --> 00:07:31,599 them as a code generator can be 182 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:33,520 effective but my contention is that you 183 00:07:31,599 --> 00:07:38,240 know knowledge isn't the end state of 184 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:41,120 learning in and of itself. Um and so if 185 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:42,880 we try to distinguish skills from 186 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:46,479 knowledge 187 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:49,199 um you you gain a skill for the purpose 188 00:07:46,479 --> 00:07:50,240 of applying it um you can apply 189 00:07:49,199 --> 00:07:52,160 knowledge but that you know this is 190 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:54,319 where you I'm constructing a distinction 191 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:55,440 here. Leave me alone. Um, you know, 192 00:07:54,319 --> 00:07:57,360 knowledge can be gained from a whole 193 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:58,720 bunch of other purposes. Like I you 194 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,080 don't learn about the entire tram 195 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,680 network of Victoria because you're 196 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,680 looking to run it necessarily. You just 197 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:08,400 want to talk about it with your friends. 198 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:10,240 Um, but if you see skills as kind of 199 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:12,400 being, you know, knowledge plus 200 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:15,840 understanding, 201 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:18,879 um, it's it's a pathy way to put it. It 202 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:20,240 might not be accurate, but there's 203 00:08:18,879 --> 00:08:21,520 enough truth to be able to make a couple 204 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:24,960 of points from it. The main one being 205 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:26,560 that LLMs embody knowledge. They know 206 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:28,800 for a given sequence of tokens what 207 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:30,960 tokens are likely to come next. They 208 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:33,279 know for a question what the shape of an 209 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:35,120 answer might be. Uh they don't 210 00:08:33,279 --> 00:08:37,360 understand that though. They don't 211 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:40,240 understand why you get from here to 212 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:41,760 there. Um they can give you some of the 213 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:45,120 reasons why other people have given as 214 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:47,279 to why that might be the case. But um 215 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:49,120 that's you that's still sort of in the 216 00:08:47,279 --> 00:08:51,360 vicinity of of just regurgitating the 217 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:52,640 textbook rather than actually 218 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:56,080 understanding what's going on and 219 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:57,200 conveying that. To develop skills, you 220 00:08:56,080 --> 00:09:00,399 have to be able to develop 221 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:03,760 understanding. And LLMs can point us 222 00:09:00,399 --> 00:09:05,440 that way. But you know, you have to 223 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:07,680 develop the understanding on your own. 224 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:09,519 If you're using the output from an LLM, 225 00:09:07,680 --> 00:09:11,680 that kind of approach can work. I mean, 226 00:09:09,519 --> 00:09:13,440 a similar approach worked for me. I am 227 00:09:11,680 --> 00:09:16,320 not the best at just receiving knowledge 228 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:20,880 from someone standing on a stage. 229 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:23,120 Um I I learn things by having projects 230 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:26,399 to work on. I learn things by pulling 231 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:28,160 things apart. I am terrible at dealing 232 00:09:26,399 --> 00:09:30,800 with other people's code because I will 233 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:35,839 basically learn it by reformatting it. 234 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:37,040 Um but other people work differently. 235 00:09:35,839 --> 00:09:39,120 But the way that you come to 236 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:40,640 understanding is you know coming to the 237 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:42,320 understanding is the important point. 238 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:44,800 And what can really help with that is 239 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:46,720 things like effective mentoring. 240 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,880 Um, but to be an effective mentor 241 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:50,399 requires not only understanding the 242 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:52,880 problem space you're working in, but 243 00:09:50,399 --> 00:09:56,240 understanding the student. 244 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:57,680 Um, and 245 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:59,519 you know, understanding why they're 246 00:09:57,680 --> 00:10:01,120 making certain mistakes, why they're not 247 00:09:59,519 --> 00:10:03,040 getting to where they need to be, and 248 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:04,160 helping them realize that and move on. 249 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:05,680 Sometimes it can even just be 250 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:07,279 understanding that their problem isn't 251 00:10:05,680 --> 00:10:09,600 any lack of knowledge, but just lack of 252 00:10:07,279 --> 00:10:11,760 confidence. And we've seen what happens 253 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:13,760 when people try to use LLMs to build up 254 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:16,640 their confidence 255 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:20,000 like any kind of you don't go to LLM for 256 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:23,200 therapy people just don't. Um 257 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:25,600 so coming back to this line 258 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:27,279 we used to make things is a line that's 259 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:29,920 trotted out by people of a certain 260 00:10:27,279 --> 00:10:31,519 political economic bent and like all 261 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:33,920 good short pathy statements it has a 262 00:10:31,519 --> 00:10:35,920 grain of truth in it. A lot of western 263 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:38,480 economies used to have a lot of 264 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:41,440 manufacturing in them. Then starting in 265 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:43,760 the 70s and increasingly in the 80s, a 266 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:46,480 lot of that moved offshore. 267 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:49,760 Why? Well, we got better at moving 268 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:51,200 things around u for on one hand, but we 269 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:53,279 got bit better at moving physical 270 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:57,279 objects around and we got better at 271 00:10:53,279 --> 00:11:01,279 moving money around and it was a lot it 272 00:10:57,279 --> 00:11:03,839 became a lot easier for you to do the 273 00:11:01,279 --> 00:11:05,360 the making of an object in one place and 274 00:11:03,839 --> 00:11:07,279 then get it to the market you wanted to 275 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:08,800 sell it in. And why would you even 276 00:11:07,279 --> 00:11:10,399 bother doing that? Because it was 277 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:13,279 cheaper. 278 00:11:10,399 --> 00:11:14,560 Um, you 279 00:11:13,279 --> 00:11:17,560 Sorry, I'm losing where I am in my 280 00:11:14,560 --> 00:11:17,560 notes. 281 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,800 Yeah. So, we got better at moving things 282 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:22,240 around so that you could move the you 283 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:24,399 could get the components that you needed 284 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:26,959 in one location, put the thing together, 285 00:11:24,399 --> 00:11:28,959 put it on a boat, send it over, sell it 286 00:11:26,959 --> 00:11:30,399 somewhere else. And not only that, you 287 00:11:28,959 --> 00:11:32,480 could get the money to where it needed 288 00:11:30,399 --> 00:11:33,760 to be in order to make that happen. And 289 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,519 you combine that with the fact that 290 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:37,519 countries like you know China, India, 291 00:11:35,519 --> 00:11:39,680 others were getting to the point where 292 00:11:37,519 --> 00:11:41,279 they had the ability to have these 293 00:11:39,680 --> 00:11:44,240 factories 294 00:11:41,279 --> 00:11:46,720 uh constructed there but that their 295 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:47,920 workforces were not necessarily as uh 296 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:49,279 their standards of living had not 297 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:50,959 increased to the point where they were 298 00:11:49,279 --> 00:11:53,440 as expensive as people in the countries 299 00:11:50,959 --> 00:11:55,279 that they were moving out from. um you 300 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:58,160 could just move everything over there 301 00:11:55,279 --> 00:12:00,160 and it became cheaper and naturally this 302 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,440 was a great you know this is a great 303 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,519 deal for the people who were looking 304 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:05,839 after the money but a terrible deal for 305 00:12:03,519 --> 00:12:07,839 the people who had been doing the work 306 00:12:05,839 --> 00:12:11,120 and it also turns out that a lot of 307 00:12:07,839 --> 00:12:15,160 those hang no Jesus sorry I've mucked 308 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:15,160 this one up completely so 309 00:12:15,680 --> 00:12:20,399 yeah 310 00:12:18,399 --> 00:12:24,000 right yeah it works great provided you 311 00:12:20,399 --> 00:12:24,000 don't get big boat stuck 312 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:29,519 And so, you know, exactly why would you 313 00:12:27,680 --> 00:12:32,000 want to? Your money is portable. You can 314 00:12:29,519 --> 00:12:34,079 move it there. Um, the a lot of the the 315 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:36,320 deregulation during the 70s and 80s was 316 00:12:34,079 --> 00:12:39,920 about allowing capital to move from one 317 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:41,600 place to another. Um, and so 318 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:43,920 you you can get your money to where it 319 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:46,480 needs to be to make that happen, but the 320 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:49,279 labor can't move and seek better 321 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:51,279 conditions elsewhere. 322 00:12:49,279 --> 00:12:52,880 And the grim comedy that comes along 323 00:12:51,279 --> 00:12:54,320 with this is that the same people who 324 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:56,000 were telling us that this was all a 325 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,600 really good idea because we get cheap 326 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,760 televisions. 327 00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:02,880 Um 328 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:04,399 they they are working against the people 329 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:06,720 who just lost all their jobs and those 330 00:13:04,399 --> 00:13:08,560 people turns out they vote and so those 331 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:10,800 people these days are looking for a 332 00:13:08,560 --> 00:13:13,440 reason why this happened. 333 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:15,760 Um 334 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:17,200 but the biggest issue really and and the 335 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:18,959 one that I want to focus on here is that 336 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:21,519 all those skills that were involved in 337 00:13:18,959 --> 00:13:23,120 manufacturing went away in a lot of the 338 00:13:21,519 --> 00:13:25,360 economies that doing this. The US being 339 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:28,320 an obvious example, but it's not by not 340 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:30,560 alone. Manufacturing is a huge industry 341 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:32,079 that has many layers to it. Uh the 342 00:13:30,560 --> 00:13:33,600 obvious one is the workers in the 343 00:13:32,079 --> 00:13:35,839 factory themselves assembling the 344 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:37,120 products. Um, that's one set of skills 345 00:13:35,839 --> 00:13:39,120 because as much as various people are 346 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:41,040 going to claim that this is unskilled 347 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:42,639 labor, I would challenge any of the 348 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:44,320 people saying that to actually do that 349 00:13:42,639 --> 00:13:46,560 kind of work at the rate that they'd be 350 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:48,880 expected to do it. 351 00:13:46,560 --> 00:13:51,200 But the components that go into that 352 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:53,920 manufacturing process uh also have to 353 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:55,839 come from somewhere. And those could be 354 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,440 individual components, screws, parts, 355 00:13:55,839 --> 00:14:00,959 whatever. But they could also be the 356 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:02,880 things that make the parts. And so there 357 00:14:00,959 --> 00:14:05,120 are sort of skills further back in the 358 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:06,399 chain. uh tool and die manufacturing 359 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:08,160 which is where you actually make the 360 00:14:06,399 --> 00:14:09,839 things that make the parts that go into 361 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,600 the things 362 00:14:09,839 --> 00:14:13,680 those don't exist in the US anymore 363 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:15,920 either because when the factories moved 364 00:14:13,680 --> 00:14:17,600 the skill sets required moved with the 365 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:21,199 factories 366 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:23,600 and so you can't necessarily get that 367 00:14:21,199 --> 00:14:26,160 done in the US anymore. You can see you 368 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:29,680 can find a bunch of stories online uh 369 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:31,600 where someone goes and tries to make a a 370 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:34,720 brand new completely made in the US 371 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:37,680 product and 372 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:39,600 they can't because they they first go 373 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:41,040 right I just need someone to put my 374 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:42,160 product together and they and they have 375 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:44,399 trouble finding a factory that's going 376 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:46,639 to do that. But then once they've found 377 00:14:44,399 --> 00:14:48,480 that they then need to get the the tools 378 00:14:46,639 --> 00:14:50,800 and dyes and whatever to make the the 379 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:52,240 parts that they need. And if they can 380 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:54,240 find a factory that does that, most of 381 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:56,000 the time the actual design and and 382 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:57,920 construction of the tool of the dyes and 383 00:14:56,000 --> 00:15:01,120 molds and everything that's used is done 384 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:04,000 elsewhere, generally China. 385 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:06,720 Um the people that had those skills lost 386 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:08,079 their jobs and they weren't able to pass 387 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,920 those skills on. They weren't able to 388 00:15:08,079 --> 00:15:11,600 mentor the next generation of people who 389 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:13,839 would be doing those jobs and so those 390 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:16,160 jobs aren't there anymore. 391 00:15:13,839 --> 00:15:18,160 Um, and so this is one of my big worries 392 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,839 when it comes to large language models 393 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:22,160 and their use in coding is that if we 394 00:15:19,839 --> 00:15:26,079 allow skills around coding to atrify in 395 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:28,000 the same way in in our societies, then 396 00:15:26,079 --> 00:15:30,000 we end up in a similar situation where 397 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:32,399 the skills that we need to do that kind 398 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:35,839 of work are not here anymore and we are 399 00:15:32,399 --> 00:15:39,199 required to go elsewhere for that. 400 00:15:35,839 --> 00:15:40,720 Um, meanwhile, the solution generally 401 00:15:39,199 --> 00:15:42,880 proposed for a lot of these situations 402 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:44,560 is if you don't want this to happen, 403 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,160 then you need to accept lower 404 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:49,199 conditions. 405 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:50,720 Um, I'm not a huge fan of this argument. 406 00:15:49,199 --> 00:15:52,480 Uh, cuz it's often coming from people 407 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:55,040 who seem to be perfectly happy accepting 408 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:56,720 better conditions for my sacrifice. 409 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:58,720 Um, 410 00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:02,079 and 411 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:04,160 and just, you know, as people sometimes 412 00:16:02,079 --> 00:16:09,079 say, history doesn't always repeat 413 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:09,079 itself, but it does rhyme. 414 00:16:09,759 --> 00:16:15,360 So, 415 00:16:11,759 --> 00:16:17,279 this is a picture of Ned Lud. 416 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:18,560 We can't for sure say that this is 417 00:16:17,279 --> 00:16:21,680 anything close to what he actually looks 418 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:23,440 like because he didn't exist. 419 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:25,360 um doesn't mean though that he wasn't 420 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:27,440 the face of a major movement in what 421 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:29,360 we'd now call industrial relations. And 422 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:33,440 so if anyone hasn't seen the bottom of 423 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:35,920 that there, uh he was the lud in lites. 424 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:38,959 Um and one of the things I'm fascinated 425 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:42,639 by and one of the things that my talk at 426 00:16:38,959 --> 00:16:45,759 um um the 2023 Pike on AU in Adelaide 427 00:16:42,639 --> 00:16:47,440 was about is just how how ideas and 428 00:16:45,759 --> 00:16:49,199 understanding of things evolve and 429 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:51,440 especially how things like politics play 430 00:16:49,199 --> 00:16:54,320 into that and specific to this case is 431 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:56,800 how the term lite in common usage is 432 00:16:54,320 --> 00:17:00,720 generally uh someone who's reflexively 433 00:16:56,800 --> 00:17:04,079 anti-technology in general um when 434 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:07,919 that's not actually what the lites were 435 00:17:04,079 --> 00:17:11,120 um so the original lites came from the 436 00:17:07,919 --> 00:17:12,640 English textile industry and so it's 437 00:17:11,120 --> 00:17:15,280 probably worth just starting with a 438 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:18,160 brief thing on how cloth is made or at 439 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:20,319 least at the time. Um so ignoring the 440 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:23,600 primary industry bit so you know um 441 00:17:20,319 --> 00:17:25,280 sheep wool or cotton or flax or hemp or 442 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:28,799 whatever you're using once you've got 443 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:30,960 that ba fiber you need to spin that into 444 00:17:28,799 --> 00:17:33,840 yarn or thread and then that needs to be 445 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:35,520 woven into cloth and then you know there 446 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:38,320 are other finishing processes going 447 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:40,240 after that dying you know various other 448 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,919 things cropping was an important one 449 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:44,720 where you had to sort of trim off the 450 00:17:41,919 --> 00:17:48,400 the fluffy bits to get nice smooth cloth 451 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:50,320 um that comes up Um so before automation 452 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:51,760 this was all done largely by hand. There 453 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:54,880 were simple machines involved but they 454 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:56,720 were oneperson things. Um and it 455 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:59,120 involved a significant number of people 456 00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:03,120 at each stage of the process. Um you 457 00:17:59,120 --> 00:18:05,200 often had um uh family like literal 458 00:18:03,120 --> 00:18:07,760 cottage industries where a family would 459 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:09,600 be uh taking in raw fiber turning it 460 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:11,280 into thread like as you know one part of 461 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,679 the family group would be doing that 462 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:17,039 then the the thread would be woven into 463 00:18:13,679 --> 00:18:19,840 cloth and and then that sold. So by 464 00:18:17,039 --> 00:18:21,760 around 1740 this had evolved to a system 465 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:24,880 where the families involved would 466 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:27,120 receive raw materials from a trader. Um 467 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,559 they would then turn that into cloth and 468 00:18:27,120 --> 00:18:30,160 then the trader would come and collect 469 00:18:28,559 --> 00:18:31,679 it and go on to get it dyed or whatever 470 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:36,400 and they'd pay the family for the the 471 00:18:31,679 --> 00:18:38,640 work done. Um and this was known this is 472 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:41,679 this is a this was known as the putting 473 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:44,000 out system. Don't laugh. 474 00:18:41,679 --> 00:18:46,320 Um 475 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:48,160 so this the the important point of all 476 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:51,360 this was that a family could support 477 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:54,240 itself on this. um the the economics of 478 00:18:51,360 --> 00:18:56,640 it were well understood and so you knew 479 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:58,000 for how much cloth you raw material you 480 00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:00,400 were getting how much cloth you'd make 481 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:04,160 and how much money you'd get and a 482 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:06,799 family could live not a like a amazing 483 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:10,559 life on this but a very comfortable one. 484 00:19:06,799 --> 00:19:13,600 Um then you start getting a whole bunch 485 00:19:10,559 --> 00:19:16,400 of changes. Um the flying shuttle was 486 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:18,640 the first one um that allowed the cloth 487 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:20,880 to be made faster. It also meant that a 488 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:22,559 given weaver used to be that the width 489 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:25,919 of cloth was limited by the arms span of 490 00:19:22,559 --> 00:19:28,480 the weaver. Um the flying shuttle 491 00:19:25,919 --> 00:19:30,320 allowed that to be made uh wider than 492 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:34,000 that without requiring an extra person 493 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:36,559 working the loom. Um 494 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:37,679 and then after that you start getting a 495 00:19:36,559 --> 00:19:40,240 bunch of things. You start getting the 496 00:19:37,679 --> 00:19:41,600 spinning jenny which allows multiple um 497 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:45,840 threads to be spun at once while also 498 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:47,679 being an amazing band name. Um, and then 499 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:50,320 you get the water frame which allows 500 00:19:47,679 --> 00:19:52,559 water power to drive a loom and and 501 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:55,280 weave cloth. Then some mad Scottish 502 00:19:52,559 --> 00:19:56,960 person invents a steam engine. Um, this 503 00:19:55,280 --> 00:20:00,799 has made many people angry and has been 504 00:19:56,960 --> 00:20:02,240 widely regarded as a bad move. 505 00:20:00,799 --> 00:20:03,919 And from that you're then getting the 506 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:06,640 spinning mule, which is a slightly less 507 00:20:03,919 --> 00:20:08,320 good band name, but a 508 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:10,640 again sort of, you know, thread 509 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:15,480 manufacturing device. and then the power 510 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:15,480 loom or the steam loom. 511 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:19,919 All of these advances met with some 512 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:23,280 level of resistance, even the flying 513 00:20:19,919 --> 00:20:25,600 shuttle, because all of them represented 514 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:27,840 less people getting paid for the same 515 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:31,440 amount of work. 516 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:33,520 And all of them get used in various ways 517 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:36,799 to ratchet down the amount of money that 518 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:39,840 a given uh cloth producing unit family 519 00:20:36,799 --> 00:20:42,080 in this case is getting 520 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:45,280 um while making meaning more profit for 521 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:48,320 other people further in the chain. Um 522 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:50,080 but the steam engine and the the tools 523 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:52,400 derived from that are where it really 524 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:54,640 sort of kicked off. 525 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:56,080 Um once the machines reached a level of 526 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:58,240 capability and especially once they were 527 00:20:56,080 --> 00:21:01,919 getting steam power initially you know 528 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:04,320 uh the need for skilled workers dropped 529 00:21:01,919 --> 00:21:06,880 steam looms didn't need a skilled weaver 530 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:10,000 to operate them and there were other 531 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:12,640 parallel advances in that automated the 532 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:15,840 cropping process and the croppers were 533 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:17,760 very much a uh a very skilled trade. you 534 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:20,080 needed a very good cropper in order to 535 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:22,320 get really good quality fabric and they 536 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:23,760 were basically out of a job at that 537 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,120 point. Instead of the SC instead of the 538 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:27,280 cottagebased systems, you started 539 00:21:25,120 --> 00:21:31,280 getting factories. 540 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:33,600 Um, and those factories um weren't 541 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:35,120 staffed by people who had had to spend 542 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:38,240 years training and learning how to do 543 00:21:35,120 --> 00:21:41,760 their craft. Uh, they were staffed by, 544 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:44,480 you know, whoever, often children. And 545 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:47,840 this is in, shall we say, very non-union 546 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:51,600 conditions. Um, so yeah, ONS had not 547 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:53,200 been invented yet at all. Um, the other 548 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:55,919 thing that led into the Lite uprising 549 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:57,840 was this guy Napoleon. Um, there was a 550 00:21:55,919 --> 00:22:00,880 bunch of wars going on that Napoleon 551 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:05,880 kept starting. Um, sort of the Bruce 552 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:05,880 Lairman of wars. Um 553 00:22:06,159 --> 00:22:10,080 um 554 00:22:07,679 --> 00:22:14,559 but that caused a whole bunch of 555 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:18,240 economic clarity um and which led to the 556 00:22:14,559 --> 00:22:21,600 the economic situation for the weavers 557 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:23,679 getting absolutely dire. So what do they 558 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:26,400 do? Well, you could start by asking 559 00:22:23,679 --> 00:22:29,280 nicely. You talk to the people who are 560 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:30,880 who are in charge of the the the sort of 561 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:32,400 the the 562 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:34,159 receiving side of all this and say look 563 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,440 could we not build the factories? Could 564 00:22:34,159 --> 00:22:37,520 we build them in such a way so that 565 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:39,039 you're employing people who you know 566 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:42,159 need the money? Could we not employ 567 00:22:39,039 --> 00:22:43,840 children maybe? Um and of course um you 568 00:22:42,159 --> 00:22:46,080 know the response for that was um how 569 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:48,400 about no. I mean the thing is that some 570 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:50,240 people did respond and change practices 571 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:53,200 but all it takes as we've seen time and 572 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:54,799 time again is one or two people who are 573 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,960 willing to put profit above everything 574 00:22:54,799 --> 00:22:58,559 else and suddenly it becomes untenable 575 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,159 to stay in the business unless you are 576 00:22:58,559 --> 00:23:01,679 also putting profit above everything 577 00:23:00,159 --> 00:23:04,320 else. 578 00:23:01,679 --> 00:23:06,000 Um so the next stage is appealing to 579 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:09,360 authority and so they they went to the 580 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:13,520 government and said hey can you help out 581 00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:15,120 exactly yeah didn't work. Um so then we 582 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:18,720 move on to I guess what would these days 583 00:23:15,120 --> 00:23:22,320 we call direct action. 584 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:24,880 Um they started breaking the machines. 585 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:29,039 Um this is where you actually get the 586 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:32,400 lites showing up as lites. Um Ned Lud 587 00:23:29,039 --> 00:23:34,000 was named for a a invented character who 588 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:36,480 had a very large hammer and he would 589 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:38,640 come in and he would break your um break 590 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:40,000 your machines. They were very surgical 591 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,159 about it though. They didn't attack 592 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:44,640 everyone. They attacked they they would 593 00:23:42,159 --> 00:23:47,679 go after mill owners and factory owners 594 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:50,640 who were the the most obvious at 595 00:23:47,679 --> 00:23:53,360 actually trying to screw the workers 596 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:56,880 out. And they would break their machines 597 00:23:53,360 --> 00:24:00,159 in specific ways to make them uh either 598 00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:02,559 hard or very expensive to repair. 599 00:24:00,159 --> 00:24:04,880 And they were incredibly organized with 600 00:24:02,559 --> 00:24:06,400 it. They would they would run drills. Uh 601 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,840 they'd be out on the moors at night 602 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:10,799 practicing their operations so they 603 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:13,919 could just get it all smooth. Um and it 604 00:24:10,799 --> 00:24:15,279 was combined with you know all of the 605 00:24:13,919 --> 00:24:16,880 other things you would expect from this 606 00:24:15,279 --> 00:24:18,640 kind of direct action movement. There 607 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,640 was more appeals to government, more 608 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:22,960 appeals to you know other government 609 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:26,240 officials, legislature, you know the 610 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:28,720 public in general. It's it was a uh an 611 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:32,640 industrial strike before such things 612 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:34,960 were really thought of as such. And so 613 00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:38,559 it all worked right. 614 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:41,279 It was initially very effective and 615 00:24:38,559 --> 00:24:43,120 and it wasn't all by the end of it just 616 00:24:41,279 --> 00:24:45,919 the cool targeted machine breaking 617 00:24:43,120 --> 00:24:48,400 though. Uh the lites did send death 618 00:24:45,919 --> 00:24:50,159 threats and the likes. Um and it did 619 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:53,440 lead up to one mill owner getting us 620 00:24:50,159 --> 00:24:55,120 getting killed. Um but part of the 621 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,320 reason it escalated that far was it was 622 00:24:55,120 --> 00:24:58,559 so effective that the government got 623 00:24:56,320 --> 00:25:01,600 involved on the side of the factory 624 00:24:58,559 --> 00:25:03,520 owners. Um there was legislation passed 625 00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:05,679 making the breaking of machines illegal. 626 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,720 initially in 1788 627 00:25:05,679 --> 00:25:08,960 with the punishment being 628 00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:11,520 transportation. 629 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:13,919 Um so any Australians in the room should 630 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:16,159 understand where that was going. Um but 631 00:25:13,919 --> 00:25:20,480 then in 1812 machine breaking was made a 632 00:25:16,159 --> 00:25:23,279 capital felony as in death penalty. Um, 633 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:25,360 all of that worked and the Leites were 634 00:25:23,279 --> 00:25:26,960 put down and the slow march of history 635 00:25:25,360 --> 00:25:29,200 got to work reducing them from a group 636 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:31,200 of people with a legitimate set of 637 00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:33,679 grievances but no legitimate way to deal 638 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:37,600 with them uh to a bunch of out of touch 639 00:25:33,679 --> 00:25:42,080 weirdos who didn't like change. 640 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:44,159 Um, so the lites, you know, they're a 641 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:45,440 lot more complex and complicated as with 642 00:25:44,159 --> 00:25:49,440 a lot of things in history than they 643 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:50,960 seem on the surface. Um, and as with a 644 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,559 lot of historical things that have, you 645 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,880 know, in that are political and 646 00:25:52,559 --> 00:25:56,400 socioeconomic in nature, there are a lot 647 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:59,360 there's a lot more dimensions to it than 648 00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:02,159 we're encouraged to think of. Um, they 649 00:25:59,360 --> 00:26:04,159 are absolutely forerunners of of what 650 00:26:02,159 --> 00:26:08,080 becomes the labor and union movement 651 00:26:04,159 --> 00:26:09,520 later. Um, and especially um, the lite 652 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,720 reaction to the industrial revolution, 653 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,159 everything came on was something that 654 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:14,320 got written into a book by Friedrich 655 00:26:12,159 --> 00:26:15,600 Engles. Uh, the English title is the 656 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,799 condition of the working class in 657 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:19,039 England. 658 00:26:16,799 --> 00:26:22,720 which um in turn was heavily in 659 00:26:19,039 --> 00:26:25,360 influential on uh one Karl Marx 660 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:27,440 um because you know when we're talking 661 00:26:25,360 --> 00:26:29,279 about Marx like the means of production 662 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:33,200 is a term that you see used a lot 663 00:26:29,279 --> 00:26:35,200 through Marxist writing and what that 664 00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:38,000 generally means is the things that the 665 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:39,760 worker uses or needs in order to produce 666 00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:42,400 something 667 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:45,279 tools workspace you know all of that 668 00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:47,039 kind of stuff owning that gives you the 669 00:26:45,279 --> 00:26:48,799 ability to control the way production 670 00:26:47,039 --> 00:26:51,520 happens even if you're not actually 671 00:26:48,799 --> 00:26:53,360 producing anything yourself. 672 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,480 In the case of the lites, part of the 673 00:26:53,360 --> 00:26:56,720 change they're dealing with is that the 674 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,240 means of production had changed and it 675 00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:00,320 had changed in a way that meant they had 676 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:02,720 less control over it. Not just because 677 00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:04,559 the machines existed, although that was 678 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,240 part of it, but because of the way in 679 00:27:04,559 --> 00:27:08,400 which the machines were owned and 680 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:11,039 operated. They didn't own the machines, 681 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,880 the mill owners did. So the mill owners 682 00:27:11,039 --> 00:27:15,679 could tell them how work was going to 683 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:18,159 happen. And that change was forced on 684 00:27:15,679 --> 00:27:20,480 them under terms that they didn't like 685 00:27:18,159 --> 00:27:24,240 and weren't allowed to negotiate. They 686 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:25,760 had to adapt or get out of the way. 687 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:28,080 So 688 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:30,720 coming back to this question, the lites 689 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:32,400 weren't successful. The change happened. 690 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:34,559 The genie of automation was out of its 691 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:36,159 bottle and wasn't going back in. And 692 00:27:34,559 --> 00:27:40,000 those of us who are in the IT industry 693 00:27:36,159 --> 00:27:42,320 now need to know that LLMs are here and 694 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:44,320 it's now easier to automate some of the 695 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:47,039 work we do. We used to be the ones 696 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:50,000 automating other people out of jobs and 697 00:27:47,039 --> 00:27:52,480 now that might be coming back to us. 698 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:54,399 It's entire and so it's entirely 699 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,919 possible that our industry could go the 700 00:27:54,399 --> 00:27:58,399 same way as the textile industry that 701 00:27:55,919 --> 00:28:00,799 started the industrial revolution, but 702 00:27:58,399 --> 00:28:04,120 we don't necessarily have to accept that 703 00:28:00,799 --> 00:28:04,120 in advance. 704 00:28:04,799 --> 00:28:07,799 So 705 00:28:09,919 --> 00:28:16,240 change is inevitable. Um, but who gets a 706 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:19,840 say in how it happens? 707 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:21,360 Um, the Hollywood strikes that, uh, if 708 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,120 you were in Chris's talk earlier, he 709 00:28:21,360 --> 00:28:25,840 mentioned the the actors and the writer 710 00:28:23,120 --> 00:28:29,200 strikes in Hollywood. Um, they show that 711 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:30,799 direct action is possible. You can 712 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:34,240 dictate how these tools are going to be 713 00:28:30,799 --> 00:28:36,240 used in your industry. 714 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:39,919 But um 715 00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:42,559 when it comes down to just me personally 716 00:28:39,919 --> 00:28:44,799 um I'd love to see these tools as 717 00:28:42,559 --> 00:28:46,480 useful, but I find it really hard to 718 00:28:44,799 --> 00:28:48,720 separate them from the people that own 719 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:50,080 them. I certainly don't want to just 720 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:53,440 quietly accept a future that's 721 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:56,960 envisioned by Elon Musk or Peter Teal or 722 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:59,200 Sam Alman. If I But if I had to sort of 723 00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:00,640 look at it uh deeply, one of the things 724 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,559 that I really want out of these tools is 725 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:04,240 sustainability. 726 00:29:02,559 --> 00:29:06,080 uh which isn't just one thing like 727 00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:08,080 you've got environmental sustainability. 728 00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:10,960 The the current models are just a 729 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:13,200 disaster environmentally. Um we were 730 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,640 almost at a point where we I thought we 731 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,159 were starting to do action on climate 732 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,919 change and now that's completely out the 733 00:29:16,159 --> 00:29:19,200 window because we need to build this 734 00:29:17,919 --> 00:29:21,360 first and then this is going to tell us 735 00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:23,679 how to fix it. 736 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:25,919 I don't quite like that. And then also 737 00:29:23,679 --> 00:29:27,360 like there a bunch of data centers that 738 00:29:25,919 --> 00:29:28,480 are being apparently constructed around 739 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,960 Melbourne have just been given the 740 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:34,080 license to use huge amounts of water uh 741 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:37,080 in Australia. This is ridiculous. 742 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,080 Like 743 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:42,080 for these tools to be a viable fixture 744 00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,320 in our lives, they can't come at the 745 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:46,640 cost of the planet we live on. And 746 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:48,720 speaking of costs, 747 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:51,200 all of these companies, all of the major 748 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:53,360 companies in the LLM space at the moment 749 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:55,679 are financially currently impossible to 750 00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:57,360 sustain. All the ones that claim 751 00:29:55,679 --> 00:29:58,880 profitability are generally doing it by 752 00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:01,279 excluding things like the cost of 753 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,880 training their models. And all of them 754 00:30:01,279 --> 00:30:04,799 are relying on billion a lot of them 755 00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:06,640 relying on billions with a B of dollars 756 00:30:04,799 --> 00:30:09,600 of investment per year to keep 757 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:11,279 operating. Um, 758 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:13,360 and this tells me two things. Firstly, 759 00:30:11,279 --> 00:30:16,159 this is growth phase behavior, which 760 00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:18,240 means that extraction phase comes next. 761 00:30:16,159 --> 00:30:20,720 And if you are now dependent on using 762 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:23,039 their model and they start raising 763 00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:25,279 prices or reducing functionality, you're 764 00:30:23,039 --> 00:30:28,080 going to be in trouble. And if they are 765 00:30:25,279 --> 00:30:30,000 not for financially sustainable, then 766 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:32,960 the ability to retrain the models, which 767 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:35,360 has to happen regularly in order to keep 768 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:38,799 them up to date, that stops happening. 769 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:41,679 which all leads to how do we make them 770 00:30:38,799 --> 00:30:45,120 society sustainable. 771 00:30:41,679 --> 00:30:46,799 Um, LLMs can't come up with new ideas. 772 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,159 They have that or to be more accurate, 773 00:30:46,799 --> 00:30:50,399 they've got no understanding of what 774 00:30:48,159 --> 00:30:52,480 they're generating. The reasoning models 775 00:30:50,399 --> 00:30:55,039 only work by feeding the output from one 776 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:56,640 model to another and refining the result 777 00:30:55,039 --> 00:30:58,960 that way using more resources in the 778 00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:01,039 process. They can generate the code, but 779 00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:03,440 they can't ensure the code is right or 780 00:31:01,039 --> 00:31:05,120 good or safe. 781 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,960 They also can't learn. They can't learn 782 00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:09,039 new things. And my this is where my 783 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:11,679 biggest worry joins everything together. 784 00:31:09,039 --> 00:31:13,840 If we society speaking let our skills in 785 00:31:11,679 --> 00:31:16,320 this area atrophy. We're letting the 786 00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:17,919 LLMs do the work. We put ourselves in a 787 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,600 position where we are both beholden to 788 00:31:17,919 --> 00:31:22,960 whoever is asserting ownership of the 789 00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:24,399 LLMs or the tools around them and also 790 00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,080 beholden to wherever we get the skills 791 00:31:24,399 --> 00:31:27,760 from to actually make the code useful. 792 00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:30,559 assuming we're not just begging the LLM 793 00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:33,200 to please take the bugs out this time 794 00:31:30,559 --> 00:31:35,120 and paying even more for the privilege 795 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:36,960 because that would be us accepting that 796 00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,559 these people now own the means of 797 00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,799 production in our industry and that our 798 00:31:38,559 --> 00:31:43,760 work, our skills and to some extent 799 00:31:40,799 --> 00:31:47,200 ourselves are no longer valuable. So 800 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:50,720 where do we go from here? Well, 801 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:52,559 firstly um at some level we need to 802 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:56,000 accept that we are workingass. We are 803 00:31:52,559 --> 00:31:59,039 selling our skills and that means that 804 00:31:56,000 --> 00:32:00,880 we are you know we need to find common 805 00:31:59,039 --> 00:32:02,880 cause with all the people who are also 806 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:05,039 selling their skills to make a living. 807 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:07,200 Join your union. 808 00:32:05,039 --> 00:32:09,440 Um 809 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:11,120 the ACTU is the peak body for Australian 810 00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:13,200 unions. You can go there. They'll I'll 811 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,559 help you find out what your union is. If 812 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,480 your union would be the shop 813 00:32:14,559 --> 00:32:19,120 distributive and allied employees 814 00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:21,679 association or the SDA, it is not your 815 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:23,360 union. join the retail and fast food 816 00:32:21,679 --> 00:32:26,159 workers union instead. Come and ask me 817 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:28,399 outside as to why. Make your union 818 00:32:26,159 --> 00:32:30,480 better. The union movement needs to get 819 00:32:28,399 --> 00:32:33,760 better at actually advocating for this 820 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:36,000 stuff. Um, 821 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:37,919 make society better. We need movements 822 00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,519 that will actually improve stuff outside 823 00:32:37,919 --> 00:32:41,840 of the union movement and working 824 00:32:39,519 --> 00:32:45,039 alongside it to work together to make 825 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:46,960 society better because I individually 826 00:32:45,039 --> 00:32:49,679 can't change everything and we have to 827 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:52,159 at least try. We all need to try because 828 00:32:49,679 --> 00:32:55,540 if we can't make society better, well, 829 00:32:52,159 --> 00:32:56,990 that sounds like a skill issue. 830 00:32:55,540 --> 00:33:04,770 [Applause] 831 00:32:56,990 --> 00:33:04,770 [Music]